The eve of the outbreak of new energy vehicles, power battery industry quietly shuffle
SMM information: Although the new energy automobile industry has been popularized for several years, but compared with the public opinion propaganda, the actual development situation has been "thunder and rain," the traditional vehicle enterprises lack the actual passion, and the new brand is lack of capital and technical support.
With the formal introduction of the "double integral" policy in September 2017, public opinion generally believes that 2018 will be a year for the new energy automobile industry to take off. The reason is very simple. Whether it is the whole vehicle enterprise or the consumer, the new energy industry has already had a certain understanding and understanding of the new energy industry, and the integration of the upper and lower supporting enterprises has also been entered. It has been accumulated for several years.
As a matter of fact, the new energy industry has not been favored by the industry since then, and has changed into a blue sea area which has been paid more and more attention by all parties, including transnational automobile enterprises.
As the core area of the development of new energy automobile industry, power battery has been the focus of wide attention. How will the future China Power (24.80 -1.47%) battery industry develop?
After the blowout caused by the subsidy
As the new energy automobile industry is regarded as a major strategy, the corresponding incentive policy is also introduced. Since the 2010 "the notice on the pilot of the private purchase of new energy vehicle subsidies", the encouraging policies on the development of the new energy auto industry are emerging in endlessly.
There will be different measures in different stages of development. In the early stage, it is mainly the subsidy and policy oriented, mainly encouraging and positive incentive to buy consumers, as well as the transfer of upstream and downstream industry chain to new energy. These measures are very effective in the early stages of the development of the industry, but they do not have sustainability.
With the increasing number of new energy vehicle industry, the financial burden will also become heavier.
At the same time, at the end of 2014, in the case of no major breakthrough in electric vehicle technology, the number of enterprises announced to enter or already entered the field of electric vehicles was far more than the first Japan to engage in the research and development of new energy vehicles.
Some enterprises do not have the ability to engage in new energy research and development, but such a positive reason is to get subsidies from the state and local governments. The fraud and supplement that appeared in 2015 have been found. Some host factory employees resigned to the remote level city which was not conducive to the development of the whole vehicle enterprise. One car could cheat more than 70 thousand yuan of national and local subsidies, and several dozen small businesses could gain hundreds of millions of yuan a year.
Therefore, the effect and significance of the new energy subsidies have been worried, and the new energy subsidy policy has also been adjusted, and the acceleration of the decline has also become the consensus of all parties. Although the new energy subsidy policy in 2018 has not yet been introduced, it can be found that the subsidy of new energy vehicles will accelerate the decline in 2018, and one of the important points is that the subsidy for products under 150 km for new energy vehicles will be subsidized or will be zero.
The opinion is that the impact on the new energy industry will be huge, especially in 2017, the mini electric vehicle, which has unlimited scenery, will be hit hard in the first half of 2018.
According to the current open statistics, the sales of micro electric vehicles occupied 65% of the new energy passenger car market in 2017. In the first 11 months, Beiqi EC series and Zhi Dou D2 won the second runner up of the market segments respectively, and the 64910 series of Beiqi EC series, and the total sales volume of Zhi D2 D2 was 41155.
The two vehicles have a comprehensive range of 162km, 155km, and if calculated according to the new standard in 2018, the "national supplement + ground supplement" in 2018 will be reduced to 30 thousand yuan from this year's 54 thousand yuan, that is, at the original price of around 100 thousand yuan, it needs to be raised to 124 thousand yuan. If the enterprise does not take corresponding price strategy adjustment, the electric vehicle sales cliff type diving has been able to foresee.
Zhu Guangyan, the director of Chery's new energy battery system, told Times reporters that the decline was an inevitable trend from the present, not necessarily a bad thing. At present, the development of electric vehicles is still more dependent on national policies and subsidies, emphasizing the endurance and energy density, resulting in a lot of things that may be covered up. After subsidising, the real competition is strength and technology. When the enterprise is not only aiming at subsidies to do things, it may adopt a more cost-effective and secure solution.
Industry rapid integration
Under this large-scale subsidy, not only did the enterprises that entered electric vehicles have sprung up after the rain, but the enterprises in the upper and lower reaches of the company also blossom everywhere, and the reason is similar to that of fraud and supplement.
The previous subsidies for new energy vehicles were large and loose, and there were subsidies in many parts of the automobile production, and the policies were jointly issued by many departments, and no effective supervision was formed. As a result, some enterprises can make a profit and make a lot of rough production. Some enterprises make fake, build a factory, set up a car rental company in one hand, set up a car rental company in one hand, easily assemble "production" electric cars, cheat the subsidies, then sell them to their own controlled leasing companies, and then dismantle battery recycling and use it, so Repeatedly deceive and fill.
However, after deceiving the media is exposed, the new energy fraud behavior has been effectively stopped, and the new energy vehicle industry has gradually returned to the right track. According to the data released by the Ministry of industry and information, November 2017, China's new energy (8.22 -1.08%, stock) car production and marketing of 122 thousand vehicles and 119 thousand vehicles, respectively, up 70.1% and 83% respectively, 1-11 months of 639 thousand and 609 thousand of the cumulative production and sales. The industry predicts that by the end of 2017, the annual sales volume in 2017 will achieve the goal of "700 thousand vehicles" at the beginning of the year.
Public opinion has previously believed that the core of the development of new energy vehicles is that power battery technology is urgently needed to break through. After the new energy fraud, the development of power battery has also become a field that needs to be reexamined by the industry.
Wu Feng, a member of the Chinese Academy of engineering, analyzed the times weekly reporter: "to improve the electric vehicle's mileage, it is necessary to have a high specific energy battery. In the pursuit of high specific energy, heat will cause vehicle combustion and explosion, which is also a question of how to improve the safety of batteries. The problem of battery safety is not a single factor. On the basis of the thorough understanding of the battery reaction mechanism and the associated side reaction under the application environment, the safety and reliability of the lithium ion battery should be improved by multi angle and system. This requires a comprehensive solution from all kinds of materials, battery design, and battery system safety technology.
In fact, the power battery industry is facing more problems due to the rapid development of new energy.
The data show that since 2017, under the double pressure of higher raw material price and lower price of the downstream vehicle enterprises, the power battery production enterprises began to encounter "cold winter", and the recent data highlighted the difficulties faced in this field.
The total installed capacity of the domestic new energy vehicle power battery in 1-11 months of 2017 is only 25.23GWh, and experts are expected to not exceed 35GWh in 2017. According to the statistical data of the third party, the capacity of domestic power battery has exceeded 200GWh in 2017.
Even according to the previous calculation, the production of new energy vehicles in China can be achieved by 2 million vehicles by 2020, and the demand for power lithium batteries is only 170Gwh. Therefore, the capacity of power battery is at present serious surplus.
As the market supply and demand is so unbalanced, the power battery enterprises, which have led the product to enter the Ministry of industry and information department, have dropped from more than 200 in 2016 to the current more than 90.
Insiders believe that the power battery industry is facing a shuffle, or large-scale shuffling has already begun.
Fang Jianhua, executive partner and President of the national science and technology transformation fund new energy automobile venture capital fund, Fang Jianhua, President of the former state Xuan Gao (22.33 -0.18%), had previously said to the media that more than half of the reduction was already seen in the outside world, but in Fang Jianhua's view, it was only the beginning of the adjustment. The next knockout speed will be faster.
Many problems need to be solved
At the same time, in the rapid elimination of battery enterprises, more and more vehicle enterprises have begun to choose their own small and medium power battery enterprises to develop their own products, including the new innovative energy vehicle brand enterprises, which have also been springing up like bamboo shoots after the rain.
Analysts in the industry pointed out that in the traditional automobile manufacturing supply chain, the main engine factory will supply at least 3 or more suppliers of the same component. In the current field of new energy vehicles, power batteries account for 30%-50% of the total cost, such a key component, the host plant also needs more than 3 suppliers, and the current domestic so-called power battery plant is not more than 5.
Tafel, a new energy technology executive in Dongguan, told reporters on the times weekly that the current high quality power battery supplier is not enough to choose from the car factory. On the one hand, you will find that the capacity seems to be overcapacity, but on the other hand, there is a continuous industry black horse. The reason for this paradox is that there are few high quality suppliers that can be chosen by the car factory. The car factory wants to build a robust supply chain, and he must develop such a supplier.
The resulting cycle, a short time caused by the power battery industry is difficult to form a polymerization effect, the scale appears overcapacity, but the overall quality, high quality of the enterprises and products are not much.
It is precisely because of the above and their own development ideas, leading to the power battery industry can not form such as the traditional fuel car industry, such as the national unified 92#, 95# fuel specifications.
Zhao Xiaoyong, director general of Beijing seidad resources reutilization Research Co., Ltd., told Times reporters that the size of the battery has been issued in 2017. After two years of game, more than 500 kinds of batteries were declared, and there are still more than 100 batteries. The battery size is still too large, resulting in the battery. The production of equipment has been faced with a lot of problems since the beginning of its application, and the rate of good products is also hard to improve.
Despite the development of the commercial field of logistics, new energy vehicles have gained a little progress in 2017, but what is the development situation after the final entry into the vehicle area, especially the market performance after the subsidised slope, the power battery industry will repeat the "power battery industry" as described by industry experts. This year will be a crucial year for the PV industry.